AI, LLMs, and Economic Decision Making
Making language-model output usable as economic analysis: every number traceable to a model, every claim traceable to a source.
- LLM agents
- RAG
- knowledge graphs
- AI-ready data
Projects
Seven lines of work, each with its own page: what the question is, what has been settled, and what is still open. Papers are listed under the project they belong to.
Adaptive Experimental Design
Designing experiments that use what they have already learned — to estimate an effect precisely, or to choose the right policy, with fewer units.
- adaptive experiments
- semiparametric efficiency
- policy learning
- ATE
Best-Arm Identification and Treatment Choice
Finding the best option under a fixed budget of trials — and pinning down the exact limits of how well that can be done.
- best-arm identification
- fixed budget
- minimax optimality
- bandits
Debiased Machine Learning and Riesz Regression
Machine learning estimates of causal and structural parameters are biased by their own regularization. This project is about the correction term — how to estimate it, and what estimating it well buys you.
- debiased machine learning
- Riesz representer
- Neyman orthogonality
- semiparametrics
Causal Inference and Off-Policy Evaluation
Estimating what an intervention does — under missing treatment labels, distribution shift between the study and the target population, or a single treated unit.
- causal inference
- off-policy evaluation
- external validity
- synthetic control
Density Ratio Estimation, Weak Supervision, and Anomaly Detection
One object — the ratio of two densities — underlies covariate shift correction, learning from positive and unlabeled data, and detecting anomalies without anomaly examples.
- density ratio estimation
- PU learning
- anomaly detection
- Bregman divergence
Portfolio Optimization and Financial Engineering
Bringing prediction uncertainty, rather than point forecasts, into investment decisions — and applying statistical machinery to problems in financial practice.
- portfolio selection
- conformal prediction
- reinforcement learning
- financial engineering